Yeah I said it! The Mets are going to be the team running New York in 2015. These teams are polar opposites. The Yankees are an aging team that is banking on success from players who may be over the hump and the Mets are a young team hoping to see maturity.
It’s a new day and age for baseball. The days of spending money to win are long gone. Players that hit free agency have baggage. Look at guys like Max Scherzer, James Shields, Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval. These were the top guys in 2014/15 free agency and each of them have their concerns. Scherzer is aging and seems like he may be heading toward the decline. Shields is coming off of a shaky season and a horrible postseason performance. Ramirez cannot stay on the field. Sandoval is out of shape and is extremely streaky.
With that being said, it is time for the Yankees to accept rebuild. In order for the Yankees to get back to dominance they have to build their minor league system. There are not many names in the Yankees minor league system that are generating buzz. I thought the Yankees would go above and beyond to secure Yoan Moncada, the elite Cuban prospect, but were outbid by the Boston Red Sox.
The New York Mets accepted rebuild and are reaping the benefits. Last season saw Jacob deGrom take home the rookie of the year award. In years prior the Mets saw Zack Wheeler and Matt Harvey take the MLB by storm. There are two more major arms left in the Mets system in Noah Syndergaard (the 10th overall prospect in baseball) and Steven Matz (the 66th overall prospect in baseball). The Mets have an abundance of elite young arms that should make their rotation one of the best in baseball.
The big question mark with the Mets is their hitting. Their pitching is playoff quality. Their bullpen started off terribly last season but really developed into something special as the season went on. Jenrry Mejia flourished once accepting the role of closer, Jeurys Familia was one of the best set-up men in baseball and once Vic Black found his control he looked dominant. But then there is the hitting…
Believe it or not, the Mets hitting should be better this year. David Wright was not himself all season last year. Hampered by a shoulder injury all year long, Wright shut it down early and should be close to 100% heading into this season. Combine a healthy David Wright with the addition of Michael Cuddyer and you should see much better hitting already. The Mets also hired former Yankees batting coach Kevin Long, who could help Curtis Granderson rebound from a sub-par year. Travid d’Arnaud, one of the game’s elite catching prospects, turned it on in the second half last season. If d’Arnaud build on what he started during the second half he can really contribute. Wilmer Flores has a lot to prove at shortstop. He carried a bat that belongs in the major leagues, but you wonder if he can handle fielding the position. When you are a sub-par fielder, you better hit, and there is an immense amount of pressure on Flores’ bat.
There is a lot to be excited about with the Mets. This is a team that had 79 wins last season in a year that saw David Wright injured, Matt Harvey not make an appearance, Curtis Granderson struggle, the bullpen take several months to get figured out and the young bats take half a season to mature. With Matt Harvey back, David Wright healthy, the bullpen set for the entire season and the addition of Michael Cuddyer, you have to think that adds a good amount of wins to last year’s tally.
I’d predict somewhere between 85 and 90 wins for the New York Mets in a season that should have them in the playoff hunt.
As for the Yankees, this group needs an overhaul. If Masahiro Tanaka can stay healthy he should give the Yankees a ton of wins. Michael Pineda shows some promise and is another player who just cannot stay healthy. Dellin Betances is an elite option out of the bullpen, as is Andrew Miller. The Yankees did a good job rebuilding their bullpen after Mariano Rivera retired. It is time for the Yankees to accept rebuild across the diamond as well. There are some foundation players on the roster. Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann and Brett Gardner should have good seasons in 2014. The rest of their lineup just doesn’t have it. Outside of Tanaka and Pineda, the Yankees rotation just doesn’t have it.
I’d predict the Yankees to get somewhere between 73 and 80 wins. The best players on the Yankee roster are very injury prone. Tanaka, Pineda, Ellsbury and McCann have spent large portions of their careers injured and if that happens again this season things can get really ugly for the Yankees. Even at full strength I just cannot see this team making any noise.
Teams like the Yankees do not tend to stay irrelevant for long. Eventually the Yankees will accept rebuild and bring in some good young talent. The best way to do this quickly is to tap into the international market. The Yankees really missed the boat by getting outbid on Yoan Moncada. It may take a losing season for them to wake up and realize they need an influx of talent.
Until then, the New York Mets and their arsenal of young talent are ready, willing and able.