Bayes’s Theorem: Part I

On a Friday afternoon in 1989, the physicist Leonard Mlodinow got a phone call from his doctor. His doctor told him there was an over 99 percent chance that he was infected with HIV.

The doctor was wrong. Not only was the physicist HIV-free, the chances that he was sick had really been less than 10 percent.

The doctor had done his medical testing perfectly. He just messed up the statistics.

In particular, he failed to use Bayes’s Theorem.

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How Memes Are Making Hits

Kendrick Lamar may not be feeling so “Humble” this week. All of the tracks from his new album DAMN. charted in the Billboard Hot 100, including “Humble,” which has become the number one song in the country, and “DNA,” which debuted at an impressive #4 after the War Machine-starring video debuted earlier this week. Despite Kendrick’s […]

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